Eric Garland's Competitive Futures Blog - Latest Comments

Re: The revolution of algorithmic authority

gregorylent — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:25:22 -0000

on the way to recognizing collective consciousness ...

which, by the way, functions something like a governor on an engine, limiting how fast we can go ...

authority will in the end be a word with no meaning ..

Re: Electricity going wireless

tourtrav — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:49:22 -0000

Different point of view from that post. Interesting to say the least.

Re: One out of six construction loans in trouble – still a sunny forecast?

ericgarland — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 02:28:16 -0000

When did the "new age of responsibility" start? Everybody who has made an exceedingly horrible decision in the past few years has received cash from the US Federal Treasury.

Regardless, in my field of competitive intelligence, we talk about the important of "weak signals" intelligence. This came into vogue after 9/11, because people figured some outcomes are so bad we need to look out way in advance. I was skeptical about the new commitment to bad news, since as a futurist I knew there was a major resistance to such information.

The media's obsessive fluffing of numbers to make a positive story confirms my suspicion that talking about negative scenarios in America is as difficult as it ever was.

Re: One out of six construction loans in trouble – still a sunny forecast?

Doug Stephens — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 10:44:44 -0000

I couldn't agree more. It's to the point of being absurd.
Unemployment is growing, exports are faltering, domestic consumption is declining and yet we're being told we're in recovery.

It's hard to enter into the "new age of responsibility" when our governments are the last to own up to reality.

Re: 15,000 visitors to the Competitive Futures Blog in August

ericgarland — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:06:04 -0000

Hey, lots to discuss! Thanks for listening in.

Re: The Do-It-Yourself Future

ericgarland — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:04:52 -0000

I am waxing a bit conspiratorial on the creation of this narrative. The media, as well as the heads of many institutions tried to make it seem like the collapse of our banking system was somehow our fault and our problem. I mean, how many of your neighbors actually bought up a credit default swap? How many of your family members are allowed to borrow 35 times their own income? Lots of people bought houses with big kitchens they couldn't afford, but they didn't wreck the currency per se.

In many ways, last fall's freak out was created by the banks and the banks alone. And now it's been fixed, miraculously, by Bernanke and the banks alone. What do we have to do with it?

My point: Humanity is as kind and clever and tragic as it ever was. We have real problems: aging populations, water shortage, climate/ecological change - but the global banking sector is largely a fictitious problem, governed by the rules of fiction. So I think people should literally mind their own gardens. It's real and tangible. This will keep us thinking and inventing.

Re: The Do-It-Yourself Future

Will — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:45:21 -0000

Favorite bit from this, "This is good news, the sign of a civilization that may not crumble over some fruity derivatives sold by financial companies that didn’t understand them either"

Re: 15,000 visitors to the Competitive Futures Blog in August

twitter-13649002 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:47:53 -0000

Well done, Eric!

Keep up the good work :-)

Re: Dutch futurists look at “Enkhuizen 2030″

arthurvandenenk — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 06:47:00 -0000

Hi, if you like to see how it is now???

http://www.enkhuizenvirtueel.nl

have Fun,

Virtual Tuur

Re: You are not crazy, and forecasting works

ericgarland — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 17:32:47 -0000

You see my friend, I still believe that you CAN tell the future. Call me crazy.

Re: You are not crazy, and forecasting works

arikjohnson — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:03:26 -0000

Superb conversation this morning and great work on the podcast - amen brother - keep it comin'!

Re: And they mock FUTURISTS for bad forecasts…

ericgarland — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:22:17 -0000

I think what I've learned is that the "leaders" of our institutions are protecting the institutions and not the nation they purport to serve. I have nothing against banks, agencies, even the Fed itself. It's just stunningly clear that their leaders have confused the financial success of a few private firms with the health of the entire society.

The lesson is for other leaders who may not have the same number of powerful lobbyists working on their behalf. THEY will really need to pay attention to reality, as the federal treasury is only writing blank checks to a select few. The rest of us still need to forecast the petroleum spot markets, plan for the Boomer retirement, and choose solid business strategies.

Otherwise, as a futurist, this kind of thing is galling just because I feel BAD if I'm this wrong, just on principle!!

Re: And they mock FUTURISTS for bad forecasts…

jlswanson — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:14:28 -0000

Oh good lord, where to even begin with this one.

I think we covered a lot of this in the infrastructure discussion you had posted before, but how much more energy are we going to put into "staying the course"?

Is the lesson learned here is if you have billions or trillions of other people's money you can keep guessing till you get it right?

Re: Numbers are just relationships

John Larson — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 09:05:11 -0000

Nice! I like the "soft" questions you pose much better for two reasons. First, they are MUCH more relevant to the actual quality of my life. Second, I have power to impact the answers. It is WAY more fruitful to concern myself with those issues than with the thinly veiled gambling that is our current cultural economics focus.

Re: Muslim demographics: what’s the real trend in Europe?

John Larson — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 08:52:52 -0000

Wait a sec--you're saying that some Christians are employing scare tactics for a membership drive? Get outta here!

Re: Obama tests Keynesian economics in 2009 – new hotness, or old and busted?

husnain — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:06:20 -0000

"They have great topics like this one on www.energytalkradio.com and donate 30% to charity! Check them out."

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

Mark Johnson — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:35:20 -0000

I don't believe he has been sucked in. I believe it is vastly harder to make the kind of deals needed. Don't underestimate the financial commitment of entrenched interest to make sure the goose's golden eggs keep coming. When radical change is needed, our form of government is the wrong structure. I believe Obama's dealmaking skills are exemplary, but there are a huge number of interests willing to plant political "IED's" in his path. Don't blame him for stepping carefully.

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

Name — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:43:28 -0000

yeah it is sad. so much time and money being wasted to simply stay where we are.

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

Name — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:40:09 -0000

LOL!

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

ericgarland — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:39:04 -0000

Sure...but what was the first stimulus about then? If they missed it the first time, why would they get it right now? It's like they didn't even understand their own Keynesianism.

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

Name — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:32:45 -0000

The argument for a 2nd stimulus in this case may not be a bad idea. One could argue that you could get greater investment in infrastructure that is vitally needed at a time when jobs are needed and labor is cheap.

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

gregorylent — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:32:19 -0000

me either

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

ericgarland — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:27:59 -0000

I have been thinking about Kunstler's assertion. It makes sense when you think about it. Obama's entire life has been spent proving how talented and "normal" he is despite his unusual name and ethnic background. His success stems largely from his ability to fit in almost any institution and succeed - Harvard Law School, local politics, the Senate, and finally a presidential campaign.

Now that he has the job, he finally has license to disappoint some people, comfort the disturbed and disturb the comfortable. Instead, he's running through his old playbook, convincing people that he's not a radical, a "good man," nobody to worry about.

We NEED a radical. We need somebody to convince the entrenched interests that we are locked into a death spiral. Our elites are proving without a doubt that they are willing to trade a few more years at the top for the entire future of our nation. We all will pay for their unwillingness to look ahead and trade even a fraction of their influence for a chance at something better.

True leaders see this, recognize it, and take bold action. For a while, I thought Obama might be that leader. I regret that I no longer think that.

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

Name — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:18:14 -0000

Absolutely.

Kunstler just nailed it ; " Obama has been sucked in and suckered. "Change you can believe in" has morphed into "a status quo you will bend heaven and earth to hold onto." "

Re: Infrastructure: What are we building for our future?

ericgarland — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:57:09 -0000

The amount of energy dedicated to fundamentalist or purely ideological arguments could only be wasted in a country that basically perceives itself to be infallible. After all, if you had REAL challenges - infrastructure, aging populations, healthcare, education - how could you waste more than five minutes on arguing about the validity of Charles Darwin?

In so many dialogues on the future with leaders, I have noticed that wherever the discussion is stale, you have people who simply don't believe anything bad can happen to us. There is no negative scenario considered. Bankruptcy, failure, it's not even up for discussion. Then people act surprised when the banks melt down. You simply cannot discuss the future rationally with someone who believes they are blessed by divine providence.

The Greeks had many, many stories about people who got too full of their own press releases.